China is often considered the fastest emerging market in the world, and the fastest-growing economy. In fact, each year the Chinese government puts out figures, economic data, and much of it blows the socks off of anything else that anyone else is doing across the globe. However, I would submit to you just like our own government, much of these economic numbers are fudged. How much cannot be known, because we don’t have the real data, and they aren’t sharing it with us.
There’s a lot more transparency in the United States, and we hold our leaders, the Federal Reserve, and the economic advisers accountable. No, we are not living up to that ideal completely 100%, but I would submit to you we are a lot closer than those in China. Now then, when I look at the jobs numbers, and I see the unemployment figures dropping rapidly, I remind myself that it is an election year, and that a lot of people have dropped off the unemployment lists because they are past their 99 weeks for benefits, and supposedly they don’t count anymore. I find that to be a falsehood, just like the CBO budget for ObamaCare.
Nevertheless, with all my criticisms of the economic data coming out of the United States, I still realize that even with the margins of error at 2 or 3%, at least we have a pretty good understanding of what’s going on. In China it isn’t that way at all. Is there anyone that is putting economic data together on China other than China itself? Yes, there are a few groups, and yet they are very careful also not to upset the Chinese, so they use much of the same data that China gives them in their reports also.
Just as the credit rating agencies of the United States wish to break into the Chinese market, a very lucrative one, and a great place to expand, they also realize that due to the censorship nature of things, they can be too bold with their assessments, or too honest unfortunately. Of course, predicting the future is a little bit easier, and so perhaps it’s important to look at the forecasted numbers of the Chinese economy.
The World Bank put out a rather rosy picture of China’s future in their report titled; “China 2030: Building a Modern, Harmonious, and Creative High-Income Society,” on March 29, 2012 which stated; “China’s leaders have recognized that the country’s growth model, which has been so successful for the past 30 years, will need to be changed to accommodate new challenges,” said World Bank Group President Robert B. Zoellick.”
The video and report went on to talk about their 10% year-over-year growth rate, but didn’t mention that it was unsustainable, or that it has already fallen off that curve and that China has painted themselves into an economic corner. Zoellick of course did put the proper spin on the whole thing but noted that China needed to build a safety net, social services for its people. Really, because that right now is bankrupting the US, how can China pay for our debt (safety net included) and plus pay for its own.
Meanwhile the World Bank President also noted that “China will grow old before it can grow rich,” mostly due to its one-child policies. Yes, I believe China has growing pains, just like any nation would, the United States certainly went through its own rough and turbulent times, even still today we are often challenged with boom and bust cycles, and the exacerbated business cycles due to political influence and manipulation, without even mentioning the crony capitalists pulling their strings as well.
It’s all a weird sort of dance in global economics, but we still need some semblance of reality. Sometimes I question if we are actually getting that. Rather than crucify our largest trading partner, or chastise our own economic data anymore than I have, or any more than the debaters on CNBC care too, I’d just like to say that the fudge factor needs to come back into the fold if we are to plan ahead for our global future and enjoy a win-win situation with free and fair trade. Indeed I ask that you please consider all this and think on it.